Thursday, February 12, 2015

The 2015 Academy Awards: Predictions of All Categories and Why Selma's Director Wasn't Nominated

On Sunday, February 22nd, all of Hollywood's most prestigious stars will gather to say to each other, "Good job! You really entertained the heck out of me! Here's a golden statue that could probably pay to feed ten Ugandan children for a year that you can put in your giant mansion with fifteen bedrooms and only three residents and then sell on e-bay once your career goes down the toilet and you need some extra cash just to go to lunch with Spielberg who will tell you you're a washed-up has been!"

All joking aside, I love the Oscars. It's my Superbowl. I don't necessarily love all the ceremonious crap and I definitely despise everything about the red carpet prior to the ceremony. But what I love is hearing more about these films.

This year, I am probably the most informed about the nominees as I ever have been. In all, excluding the short films, I have only missed three foreign films, one best actress film and four documentary films, all because of their limited releases. I have listened to every soundtrack nominated and every original song nominated. And while a few categories have "sure winners", there are a bunch that are very close.

So without any further ramblings, let's get started. I'm going to skip the more technical categories because I know you guys don't care. I will cover the Cinematography category, because Cinematographers make the world go 'round.



Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures: Original Song
-Selma - Common, John Legend for "Glory"
-Begin Again - Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois for "Lost Stars"
-The Lego Movie - Shawn Patterson for "Everything is Awesome"
-Beyond the Lights - Diane Warren for "Grateful"
-Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me - Glen Campbell, Julian Raymond for "I'm Not Going to Miss You"
Every song in this category is great. Each one tells the story of it's respective film in the 3-5 minutes they have, and that's really what the Academy is looking for. I do think there is a sure winner though. The song "Glory" from "Selma" is a perfect song that connects the days of Martin Luther King Jr. with today's topics showing that the fight for 100% civil rights equality is still going on. It's a fantastic song and I can't wait to see Common and John Legend play it live.
What Will Most Likely Win: "Glory" by Common and John Legend
What Should Win: "Glory" by Common and John Legend
Weak Link: None
What Good Surprise: Both "Lost Stars" and "I'm Not Going to Miss You" could upset, the former for it's sheer popularity and the latter for the subject matter and how personal it is to Glen Campbell, given his bout with Alzheimer's. I think they're both long shots, but crazier things have happened.



Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures: Original Score
-The Imitation Game - Alexandre Desplat
-The Grand Budapest Hotel - Alexandre Desplat
-Interstellar - Hans Zimmer
-The Theory of Everything - Jóhann Jóhannson
-Mr. Turner - Gary Yershon 
This category is gonna be close between three films. "The Imitiation Game", "The Grand Budapest Hotel", and "Interstellar". All three give the films so much more depth that it's a no brainer to give them the nominees. "Mr. Turner" is a great soundtrack because it takes risks. Much like the soundtrack for "There Will Be Blood" it is filled with dissonance, which is awesome when put together with the visuals and performances. "The Theory of Everything" soundtrack is extremely mediocre. The most emotional song of the entire film isn't even from the movie originally. It's from a documentary about flamingos.
What Will Most Likely Win: Alexandre Desplat for "The Imitation Game"
What Should Win: Hans Zimmer for "Interstellar"
Weak Link: Jóhann Jóhannson for "The Theory of Everything"
What Could Surprise: Alexandre Desplat for "The Grand Budapest Hotel", not that it shouldn't. It's a fantastic score, everyone just seems to be obsessed with the score for "The Imitation Game".



Best Achievement in Cinematography
-The Grand Budapest Hotel - Robert D. Yeoman
-Mr. Turner - Dick Pope (Not Dick Poop)
-Unbroken - Roger Deakins
-Ida - Lukasz Zal, Ryszard Lenczewski
This category has a hands down, definitely gonna win, if he doesn't win I will burn something winner. Emmanuel Lubezki for "Birdman". It's seamless filming to make the middle hour and 43 minutes (maybe 44. I timed it once, but I forget) seem like one continuous shot. If this doesn't win, I call collusion.
Who Will Most Likely Win: Emmanuel Lubezki for "Birdman"
Who Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki for "Birdman"
Weak Link: As much as it pains me to say, in this year's nominees my boy Roger Deakins is the weak link. But I blame Angelina Jolie more for not taking any directing risks. He did answer to her after all.
Who Could Surprise: For the fact that they used three different formats to tell their story, I could see a slight possibility of Robert D. Yeoman winning for "The Grand Budapest Hotel". But it's a long shot.



Best Achievement in Directing
- Boyhood - Richard Linklater
- Birdman Alejandro González Iñárritu
- Foxcatcher - Bennett Miller
- The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson
- The Imitation Game - Morten Tyldum
With the exception of Bennett Miller, this is a strong category. Everyone here is well deserving of their nomination but a couple stand out above the rest. Richard Linklater spent 12 years on one film, and whether you enjoyed the movie or not, you cannot disagree with the seamlessness of jumps from age to age. The three hour long movie barely felt like two, and it captured a lot of experience that many of us had as kids. In my opinion, Linklater is only matched by the pure artistry of Iñárritu's "Birdman". There is no denying that it is the most artistically sound movie of the year. Yes, you could argue for Wes Anderson and his unmatched style, however we have seen that before. Everyone of Anderson's movies are like that, even though this is his best in my mind. But Iñárritu out did even himself with "Birdman".
Who Will Most Likely Win: Richard Linklater for "Boyhood" for the time he put in alone
Who Should Win: Linklater and Iñárritu are tied in my mind. Both for different reasons
Weak Link: Bennett Miller for "Foxcatcher". He doesn't amaze me with this movie, although it was good. The acting was the main reason I enjoyed it.
What Could Surprise: No one. This is an open and shut category for me. Now there is a lot of controversy around why "Selma" director, Ava DuVernay wasn't nominated. I understand every one's confusion, but simply put, she was the weak link in her own film. She failed to create heart wrenching scenes by cutting them too short or jumping to another scene in the middle of one. For example. I understand that this is a movie about Dr. King, but if you want me to feel emotion about Malcolm X's death, build up to it. There's no need to show it, but you can certainly build the tension and emotion by showing something. Anything. Yes, these events did happen, but if you want us to feel emotion about them while sitting in a movie theatre, RETELL the story. Don't assume we don't want to see it. Because that is exactly why we are there. She failed her own movie to the point where I don't even think it deserves a best picture nomination. I can think of three movies more deserving than "Selma". That film was driven by David Oyelowo as Dr. King, and while it was a shock he wasn't nominated, people need to remember that nominees are the combination of THOUSANDS of "Top 5" lists for actors. Every single actor nominated for a leading role deserved it. That's not to say Oyelowo didn't, he just fell through the cracks.
Anyway. Yay, Richard Linklater!



Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
- Boyhood - Patricia Arquette
- Wild - Laura Dern
- The Imitation Game - Keira Knightley
- Birdman - Emma Stone
- Into the Woods - Meryl Streep
This is by far, the weakest category. It is filled with actresses that you can only say "why her?" Laura Dern, Patricia Arquette and Meryl Streep were all painfully mediocre in their performance. Keira Knightley and Emma Stone were decent, but I don't know if they would warrant a nomination. Saoirse Ronan for "Grand Budapest", Rosamund Pike for "Hector and the Search for Happiness" and Melissa McCarthy in "St. Vincent" all would have been better choices than Arquette, Dern or Streep. Hell, Streep's two other performances from this year would have been better than hers in "Into the Woods".
Who Will Win: Knightley?
Who Should Win: Tilda Swinton in "Snowpiercer"
Weak Links: Arquette, Dern and Streep
Surprises: Meryl Streep, since they would nominated her if she was cast a a cheeseburger in a musical rendition of "Super Size Me"

"Who, me? I guess I did open my eyes really big to act surprised
pretty darn well". That's unfair, she's actually pretty good in the movie.


Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
- The Judge - Robert Duvall
- Boyhood - Ethan Hawke
- Birdman - Edward Norton
- Foxcatcher - Mark Ruffalo
- Whiplash - J.K. Simmons
While everyone here is good in their roles, if anyone other than J.K. Simmons wins, I will be thoroughly upset.
Who Is Most Likely to Win: J.K. Simmons
Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons
Weak Link: Mark Ruffalo. He;s good, but his character is kind of flat.
Surprises: Edward Norton. Everyone was tricked in 1999 to think that Roberto Benigni was acting in "Life is Beautiful", but in reality he was just being himself. So they might give it to Norton as an apology.

Pictured: J.K. Simmons the moment just before he decapitated
Miles Teller with that cymbal.


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
- Two Days, One Night - Marion Cotillard
- The Theory of Everything - Felicity Jones
- Gone Girl - Rosamund Pike
- Still Alice - Julianne Moore
- Wild - Reese Whitherspoon
Thank God this is a closer category than the Supporting counterpart. I have yet to see "Two Days, One Night" but I have seen the trailer, and Cotillard is impressive in those two minutes. To me, there is a clear cut winner here.
Who Is Most Likely to Win: Julianne Moore
Who Should Win: Julianne Moore
Weak Link: Felicity Jones, mostly due to a one sided character.
Surprises: I think Rosamund Pike, if anyone, could beat Moore. She's just absolutely insane in "Gone Girl".



Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
- Foxcatcher - Steve Carell
- The Imitation Game - Benedict Cumberbatch
- American Sniper - Bradley Cooper
- Birdman - Michael Keaton
- The Theory of Everything - Eddie Redmayne
As great as Eddie Redmayne is, if he beats Michael Keaton in this category, I will lose it.
Who is Most Likely to Win: Michael Keaton
Who Should Win: Michael Keaton
Weak Links: None
Surprises: Eddie Redmayne could win. I hope he doesn't.



Best Picture
- American Sniper
- Birdman
- Boyhood
- The Imitation Game
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Selma
- The Theory of Everything
- Whiplash
What Will Most Likely Win: Boyhood
What Should Win: Birdman or Whiplash
Weak Links: American Sniper, Selma, The Theory of Everything
What Could Surprise: The Grand Budapest Hotel

I'm sure you guys have noticed how little detail I've gone into towards the end. Quite frankly, this took longer to write than expected. This has been a great year for movies, with a mediocre year for best picture nominations. Sure, "Birdman", "Boyhood", "The Grand Budapest Hotel" and "Whiplash" are great films. And "The Imitation Game" definitely deserves it, but I'm reminded of 2013 when every single movie nominated was amazing. There were so many movies that were overlooked, which is the one thing I dislike about the awards. It's all politics. No "Calvary". No "Snowpiercer". No "Frank". Many people take the Academy Awards way too seriously. I'M LOOKING AT YOU AL SHARPTON!!!!! 



While it is a good start to see what great movies are out there, there are so much more that are arguably way more deserving of the credit. Look into movies more. Watch trailers on the internet. Don't just go see what you see on TV. 999 times out of 1,000, the best movies aren't even advertised. If you educated yourself about independent and smaller movies, you will leave movie theaters not regretting spending $10-$12 more often. And never hesitate to ask me for a recommendation (If I know you personally). There are great movies out there. Hollywood just doesn't want you to see them. Because they're brain washed by Michael Bay. He wants you to think he's a good director. But he's not.

Trademark Sign-off Pending.

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